Indonesia Faces Rising Forest Fire Risk

Jakarta, Indonesia - Indonesia is preparing for heightened forest and land fire risks as a very strong El Niño threatens to intensify dry conditions across parts of the country.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Forestry said El Niño conditions in 2026 have become a major factor increasing the risk of karhutla, the Indonesian term for forest and land fires. Citing information from Indonesia’s meteorological agency, BMKG, the ministry said El Niño is already active at very strong intensity, with the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly recorded at +2.19.

The warning has raised concern because Indonesia’s worst fire years have often occurred during strong El Niño periods, when reduced rainfall dries forests, plantations and peatlands.

Peatland fires are especially dangerous. Unlike ordinary surface fires, peat can burn underground for long periods, releasing heavy smoke, carbon dioxide, methane and other pollutants. Once ignited, peat fires can be extremely difficult to extinguish.

The Ministry of Forestry said Indonesia recorded about 202,000 hectares of forest and land fires from January through July 2026. About 57% of the burned area was inside forest areas, while 43% was outside forest zones. The ministry listed West Kalimantan, South Papua, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara and Riau among the provinces with the largest burned areas.

Although the 2026 burned area remains far below the devastating 2015 El Niño fire season, officials said the increase is a serious warning. The ministry also noted that the burned area through July was higher than comparable periods in 2019 and 2023.

Scientists have long warned that Indonesian forest and peatland fires can have global climate consequences. A 2026 open-access study in npj Natural Hazards found that severe fires in Indonesian Borneo similar to or worse than the 1997 and 2015 events are strongly boosted during El Niño. The study noted that the 1997 fires in Indonesian Borneo released up to 280 megatonnes of carbon, while the 2015 fires caused major health, economic and climate impacts across Southeast Asia.

Another satellite-based study available through NASA’s technical reports system found that El Niño years between 2015 and 2024 were associated with more than 400% more fires in Indonesia compared with non-El Niño years.

The climate impact is only one part of the crisis. Fire smoke can create severe haze, reduce visibility, disrupt air travel, close schools and worsen respiratory illness. Fine particles and carbon monoxide from fires can travel across borders, affecting communities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei.

Indonesia says it is strengthening early detection, emergency command posts, ground firefighting, weather-modification operations, coordination with regional governments and law enforcement against those responsible for illegal burning.

The challenge remains complex. Many fires are linked to land clearing, plantation activity, degraded peatlands, drainage canals and prolonged dry weather. Climate change can further worsen the situation by increasing heat, drying vegetation and making extreme fire seasons more likely.

For Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s fire risk is not only an environmental issue. It is a public health, economic, climate and regional cooperation challenge. Preventing fires before they spread will be critical as the dry season continues and El Niño conditions remain strong.